Calibrating Confidence
A note on confidence calibration, why overconfidence and underconfidence both hurt decisions, and how to test and improve probabilistic judgement.
probability
The intuition and the math behind Simpson's paradox
An intuition-first explanation of Simpson's paradox as a mismatch between local and global comparisons, followed by the algebra behind it.
Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and solving problems with them
An introduction to probability, conditional expectation, martingales, and stopping times, with math and competitive-programming examples.