The intuition and the math behind Simpson's paradox
Introduction When we reason qualitatively, we often rely on our intuition. However, intuition is often loaded with certain meta-biases that cloud our judgment; one of these biases comes into play when we think about “local” and “global” statements. What is a local or a global statement? One way of distinguishing between them is how many conditions we must guarantee hold before we can talk about the statement - so this terminology is relative. A local statement is a statement that uses many more conditions (a higher amount of specificity) than a global statement. For example, any statement about a certain group of people in the past few years is a local statement relative to a statement that is about all species that have ever existed on the earth. ...